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<text id=93TT0517>
<title>
Nov. 15, 1993: Surprise! NAFTA's Already Here
</title>
<history>
TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1993
Nov. 15, 1993 A Christian In Winter:Billy Graham
</history>
<article>
<source>Time Magazine</source>
<hdr>
POLITICS, Page 40
Surprise! NAFTA's Already Here
</hdr>
<body>
<p>By John Greenwald. Reported by Tresa Chambers/New York, Deborah
Fowler/Houston and Richard Woodbury/Laredo
</p>
<p> Bill Clinton and H. Ross Perot may be reluctant to acknowledge
it, but the U.S.-Mexican border is already wide open to trade
and likely to remain so whether the North American Free Trade
Agreement passes Congress or not. In Laredo, Texas, last week
18-wheelers thundered back and forth on I-35, hauling American-made
computers, machine tools and other goods to Mexico and bringing
back Mexican-produced TVs, beer and foodstuffs. At the same
time, Mexican shoppers streamed across the Rio Grande to splurge
at Laredo's glittering Mall Del Norte, where retailers such
as Sears and B. Dalton books are often packed. " NAFTA or no
NAFTA, free trade is here," says Kiko Zuniga, a Laredo businessman
who has built three warehouses to handle the flow of merchandise.
"All NAFTA can do is increase our sale of goods."
</p>
<p> This booming two-way commerce reflects a recent transformation
that has brought free markets to Mexico. The impact extends
far beyond border towns and deep into the American heartland,
which sends Mexican buyers everything from soybeans to Chevrolets.
Since Mexico began lowering its trade barriers, annual U.S.
exports to the Latin American country have more than tripled,
to nearly $41 billion. That has turned a U.S. trade deficit
with Mexico of $5.2 billion in 1986 into a $4.7 billion surplus
last year. "Almost all the real effects of NAFTA have already
happened," says Paul Krugman, an M.I.T. economist. "Mexico has
already had the big liberalization. We're talking not about
an investment boom that's going to happen, but one that's under
way now." Many American companies with a foothold in Mexico's
market of 88 million people have ambitious expansion plans there
regardless of NAFTA's fate. Dallas-based Southland Corp. operates
180 7-Eleven stores with joint-venture partners in Mexico and
will open 20 more by the end of the year. Wal-Mart opened a
block-long supercenter in Mexico City in September, along with
five Sam's Clubs warehouse stores. The Arkansas-based company
is completing a second supercenter in Monterey, Mexico, this
month, plus two more warehouse clubs. Rival K Mart will open
its first Mexican store in 1994, and plans to build more than
50 outlets over the next five years.
</p>
<p> Almost all the things Perot and other NAFTA critics say are
going to happen if the agreement is signed have already happened.
The largest--and most controversial--migrants to Mexico
have been the automakers and other big manufacturing firms that
have built assembly plants, or maquiladoras, along the border
and employ low-wage Mexican labor. This process has been going
on for more than 20 years. The factories export the vast bulk
of their output, basically duty-free, back to the U.S. Some
2,200 maquiladoras, most of them American-owned, employ more
than 500,000 Mexican workers. Not only has the shifting of the
facilities to Mexico cost some Americans their jobs, but lax
environmental standards and poorly enforced regulations have
turned large stretches of the 2,000-mile border into toxic cesspools.
Maquiladoras are blamed for the noxious brown cloud that often
overhangs El Paso, Juarez and other cities, as well as for the
foul wastes that flow into the Rio Grande.
</p>
<p> Pollution-free service industries have also begun flocking into
the expanding Mexican marketplace. The Principal Financial Group,
a concern based in Des Moines, Iowa, last month won the first
new insurance license Mexican authorities have issued to a foreign
firm in more than 50 years. Principal has a 30% stake in a Mexican
venture that markets insurance and pension plans. "The Mexican
insurance industry needs a dose of marketing expertise," says
Camilo Salazar, vice president of international operations for
Principal.
</p>
<p> Many of these market openings could prove to be irreversible
as Mexicans develop a growing taste for American goods. Procter
& Gamble first exported Pringles potato crisps to Mexico in
1991 and expects to sell more than $5 million worth of the snacks
there next year. When Dell Computer began assembling personal
computers in Mexico 18 months ago, its new plant promptly shattered
the company's record for sales growth. Dell expects annual sales
of the Mexican unit to continue to grow by at least 50% over
the next few years. "The Mexican economy is becoming more robust
and information-focused," says Brian Wood, Dell's vice president
for global operations. "The automation of business is still
18 months behind the U.S., so there is a big demand to upgrade
technology. You will not see the personal-computer market dry
up if NAFTA does not pass." For Mexico's consumers and companies,
as well as America's, there looks to be no turning back.
</p>
</body>
</article>
</text>